When we can measure everything.

29404432 38565193a3 b When we can measure everything.From the Flickr of bcostin

A couple weeks ago, I caught a snippet on the news about an interesting correlation. Apparently, the economy is directly responsible for an increase in the incidence of West Nile virus. Foreclosures have increased, and many of the foreclosed homes have pools. With no one tending these pools they’ve become breeding grounds for new mosquitoes.

Shortly after that I switched my running style to a shorter stride and higher cadence. I found I was able to run further without tiring and that my overall speed increased as a result. Some quick research revealed that this is a fairly well known effect. The benefits of a faster cadence are less time in the air and lower impact on your legs; better positioning to maintain momentum and increased potential for speed.

A few days ago, this post on using Google Maps to test a site’s potential for solar arrays caught my attention. It was an unexpected and clever use of maps combined with existing data around the Sun’s strength at various places. (I recently had a solar site assessment – it took several hours and involved a technician climbing up onto my roof with gear to measure the angle of the roof and then a fair amount of calculations afterwards. It cost me a couple of hundred dollars as well.)

And then most recently, this snippet from NPR linking hairy women to a declining economy also got me thinking.

So what do all of these have to do with each other? Russell wrote about this a while ago in Campaign – the idea of non-obvious relationship awareness. As our ability to measure just about every facet of our world increases, odd and unexpected relationships start to appear.

However, awareness is the first step towards behavior change. I’ve touched on this before, numbers provide a way to make decisions about what to do. Quantification of the risks associated with smoking changed behaviour and legislation around tobacco use. Quantification of the dangers of trans-fats are currently creating the same result. Measurement allows us to understand much more clearly the relationships between things that aren’t obviously related and that understanding makes us change our behaviour.

Because our entire evolution up to this point has been built upon obvious relationship awareness, there’s a potential for the impact of measurement to create fairly large and disruptive changes at every level of society. As our understanding grows around the relationships between seemingly unrelated things we will inevitably alter our behaviour accordingly.

The non-obvious relationship awareness of measurement could be cultural change.

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  • l7h
    Two great books on revealing interesting correlations and asking untypical questions are Freakonomics and Superfreakonomics by Steven D. Levitt & Stephen J. Dubner.

    They also have a blog: http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/
  • Bit late to this post but check out Onzo (http://www.onzo.co.uk/). They make human-friendly energy meters. Whole idea is that measurement of what we consume energy-wise will lead us to reduce our individual consumption. Instinctively, I buy it.
  • Ed Brenegar
    A couple years ago my son and I were backpacking with an Annapolis midshipman in New Mexico. Most of our group was a good quarter mile a head of me - old, slow and not in the shape of an 18 year old - and I was already winded. Our USNA friend told me to shorten my stride and I'd hike faster. He was right. I caught up with them before they reached the top of a 500 feet incline.
  • Mnels
    Adrian, if you haven't, you might check out the book "Nudge" (Sunstein/Thaler). They take this emerging awareness of the undercurrents that drive human behavior to the level of designing incentives that help people make better decisions or choices. I am intrigued by this idea though a little uncomfortable with our ability to accurately anticipate all the (potentially negative) consequences of incentives.
  • Adrian
    Thanks Helge,


    As always you've pointed to another great resource I didn't know about before.
  • Helge Tennø
    Excellent post Adrian.


    To ad a classic example to your post: The one about organ donation. From the Predictably/Irrational blog:



    This graph shows the percentage of people, across different European countries, who are willing to donate their organs after they pass away. When people see this plot and try to speculate about the cause for the differences between the countries that donate a lot (in blue) and the countries that donate little (in orange) they usually come up with “big” reasons such as religion, culture, etc.



    Answer:

    http://www.predictablyirrational.com/?p=235
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